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Chinese real economy development report 2012:8 industries such as steel is the most serious

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      China economic weekly and credit rating and certification center jointly issued by the ministry of commerce Chinese real economy development report in 2012 shows that: in 2012, the world economic recovery is still tough, twists and turns, the Chinese economy entered the adjustment period, influenced by macroeconomic overall downward trend at home and abroad, China's real economy run downward pressure increase, enterprise production and management difficulties.
      According to the national bureau of statistics, to November, 2012 in industrial output rose 10.0%, annual growth is expected to around 10%, than last year fell by nearly 4% and 13.9% of the fallen deeper. Including light and heavy industrial added value of year-on-year growth of 10.2% and 9.8%, respectively, year-on-year growth dropped 2.8 and 4.6% respectively.
     Look from benefit, 1 - October, the national industrial enterprises above designated size break even realized profit of 4.024 trillion yuan, up 0.5% from a year earlier. Advocate business wu income profit margin fell to 6.04% from 6.04% over the same period last year.
      From the industry, steel, building materials, photovoltaic solar energy, wind power, shipbuilding, textiles, electronic and information industries operating difficulties, some industries and even on the verge of overall losses.
      Taken together, the current real economic growth slowed and corporate profits, both the world recession, the sustaining wearying of external demand atrophy, and insufficient domestic effective demand, some industry impact of excess capacity. At the same time, the Chinese economy entered a new period, the real economy downward pressure is bigger. In fact, nearly two years, the real economy has been declining growth. In 2010, the industrial added value growth rate reached 15.7%, 2011 growth of 13.9%, expected 2012 growth at around 10%.
      Throughout the year present delay stabilization in the situation
      Since this year, the world economy has no obvious improvement, the domestic macro policy into "steady growth, structural adjustment, promote the transformation of adjustment, the continued slump in external demand and domestic demand under the condition of insufficient effective demand, 1 ~ 11 months, industrial output grew by 10.0% year on year, expects full-year growth at around 10%. Compared with 15.7% in 2010 and 13.9% in 2011, the growth continues to fall. But maintain a growth rate is not easy, but compared with other economies in the world is not the weak.
     Into the second half of the real economy there has been some delay in the signs of stabilizing. 7 - November 5 months industrial growth were 9.2%, 8.9%, 9.2%, 9.6% and 10.1%, signs of stabilisation is obvious. In October, China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.2%, the back above the critical point. Production index is 52.1%, which indicates that manufacturing growth, and accelerate the growth for two consecutive months. New orders index was 50.4%, for the first time since May 2012, recovered to a point above, shows that market demand better. Destocking is fundamental to the end, the production growth is higher than the inventory growth. But it should be said that the basis of economic stabilisation is not strong.
      The influence of external demand shrank continues
      The lingering effects of the international financial crisis continues, the European debt crisis continues, the U.S. economy remains weak, the world economic recovery twists long, international demand downturn trend is continuing. Shrinking external demand, increased pressure on the export. In the first three quarters of this year, total import and export of us $2.8425 trillion, up 6.2% from a year earlier, down 18.4% year-on-year growth. July, according to customs statistics, import and export growth fell to a record low since the end of 2009, the export growth of 1%, imports rose by 4.7%, slower than last month dropped 10.3 and 1.6% respectively. In November, 1.8% growth in gross import and export, export growth of 3.8%, imports down by 0.3%.
     From the statistical data export foreground is not optimistic. In the international market demand remains weak, all countries under the condition of unbalanced development, protectionism hotting up, not only in the us and Europe and other developed economies are set all kinds of barriers, some emerging market countries to trade restrictive measures also significantly increased, it will be for restraining the stable growth of global trade.
     Enterprise profits continued to decline, the production and business operation more difficult
      1 - October, the national industrial enterprises above designated size break even realized profit of 4.024 trillion yuan, up 0.5% from a year earlier. In the same period last year, up 25.3% from a year earlier. Advocate business wu income profit margin fell to 6.04% from 6.04% over the same period last year. Enterprise KuiSunMian reached 15%, 3% higher than the same period last year. Quite a number of companies are in a difficult situation. Among them, in the industrial enterprises above designated size, state-owned and state holding enterprise profit of 1.127 trillion yuan, down 9.2%. 27 in 41 categories of industry, industry profit year-on-year growth, fell 13 industry, an industry continue to loss. Production and operation of an enterprise is difficult to a 3.2% drop in oil and gas industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing fell by 14.3%,Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 60.3%, general equipment manufacturing sector fell by 0.6%, oil processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry are still losses of 21.74 billion yuan (year-ago profit). Look from industry development environment, enterprise labor and other production costs continue to increase, 1 - August, industrial enterprises above designated size per one hundred yuan of main business income cost is 85.47 yuan, 0.22 yuan more than in the first half of the year; In addition, the financing difficult financing is expensive, labor employment situation is very serious, thin profits, etc, in the short term is difficult to improve thoroughly. Insufficient effective demand into main contradictions though since the international financial crisis in 2008, we adopted many policy to expand domestic demand, domestic demand function have been released,But as a result of the early stage of the domestic economic growth accumulation problem such as the unreasonable economic structure, domestic demand is still insufficient. 1 - in November, the national investment in fixed assets 32.6236 trillion yuan (excluding farmers), compared with the nominal growth rate of 20.7%. At present, the investment growth at a record low since 2002. The first industrial investment 815.3 billion yuan, up 30.5% from a year earlier, faster than 1 - fell 1.8% in October; The second industry investment 14.2963 trillion yuan, increased by 21.1%, slower than 1 - fell 0.8% in October. Among them, the mining investment 1.1159 trillion yuan, increased by 12.2%, growth is down 2.5%; Manufacturing investment 11.3196 trillion yuan, increased by 22.8%, the growth rate fell 0.3%; Electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry to invest 1.4941 trillion yuan, increased by 16.2%, growth is down 2.4%.    In addition, the residents' consumption growth. Economic growth fell back on consumer confidence and employment population would cause certain influence, will produce adverse effect to the consumption growth. 1 - in November, total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 18.6833 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 14.2% nominal (excluding price factor) increase of 12% in real terms. During the same period fell 3.1% from the previous year. But believe that with continually push the income distribution reform, perfecting social security system, are looking forward to the future consumption growth.
      Economic downward pressure is still large
     In the future, the international situation is not optimistic, the world economic recovery still needs to be completely for quite some time, the outlook is not optimistic, the international market is uncertainty remains subdued and prospects. The international monetary fund (IMF) forecasts that global trade volumes will grow 4.0% in 2012, and 1.8% slower than in 2011. That makes the external environment of the real economy in China is facing a more serious. On the other hand, the adjustment of the domestic economy will enter a crucial period, in the transition from stimulus to the endogenous growth of economic operation, the process of economic growth to some extent, presents the adaptive adjustment, all aspects of the pressure is still relatively large.